The Hot Hand: NBA Shot Streaks and the Geometric Distribution

by Neil Rangwani   Each year, as the NBA season kicks off, the “hot hand” debate (or, according to Wikipedia, the hot hand fallacy) resurfaces – are streaks of made shots indicative of a player getting hot, or are they just random occurrences? Here at Princeton Sports Analytics, we’re not happy discussing this with just anecdotal evidence (I mean, did you see Steph last night?), so … Continue reading The Hot Hand: NBA Shot Streaks and the Geometric Distribution

Catching Kareem

By Neil Rangwani

With opening night for the NBA regular season one week away, one storyline that isn’t getting much attention is Kobe Bryant’s pursuit of greatness. Already one of the greatest players of all time, Kobe enters this season with five championships, two Finals MVP Awards, a regular season MVP Award, fifteen All-NBA selections, two scoring championships, and innumerable comparisons to the G.O.A.T. However, one often overlooked career milestone is total points, in which Kobe is fourth, all-time, with 31,700 career points. The all-time leader, of course, is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, with 38,387 points. With no top-tier teammates this year and in the foreseeable future to share the ball with, Kobe is uniquely positioned to make a run at the points record.

However, this past season certainly did not go according to plan for Kobe, who played in only 6 games as he recovered from injury. Now 35 years old, with 18 NBA seasons under his belt, and still recovering from a series of injuries, popular opinion is that Kobe’s chances of catching Kareem are slim. After reading this article, I decided to analyze Kobe’s chances of catching Kareem.

For reference, here’s a table of some of the top scorers in NBA history:

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Although Kobe is pretty far from Kareem, he’s closing in on Michael Jordan, so I added Jordan’s 32,392 points as a benchmark in the analysis. I’ve also included some of the other leading scorers in the NBA: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, and Kevin Durant, to see if they have any chance of reaching the upper echelon of NBA scorers.

Continue reading “Catching Kareem”