Theory of the Big 3: Predicting NBA Team Win % from Individual Performance (Full Paper)

by Gene Li

 

Nowhere is the concept of the “Big 3” more relevant than basketball. As a relatively star-dominated game compared to football, soccer, etc., NBA games are determined by the performance of a few players who can deliver offensive firepower. NBA fans often view their team’s success as driven by the top three players on each team. Just last season, we saw the trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green from the Golden State Warriors face off against Lebron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Historic “Big Threes” include the infamous James-Wade-Bosh trio in Miami, and the Duncan-Parker-Ginobili Spurs offense that won four championships over 13 years. But just how much can a team’s performance be attributed to its top three players?

View Li’s “Theory of the Big 3: Predicting NBA Team Win % from Individual Performance” full paper here.

 

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