The link that follows leads to the full paper Age in the NBA: Do Veteran Teams Outperform Expectations?
By Dana Fesjian
In the last two weeks of the Buffalo Bills season I have cried, hollered, cheered, pouted, and smiled. The Bills have had such a tumultuous end to 2014 – it is just very emotional. Bottom line, they lost a lot: an owner, a head coach, a quarterback, a game against the 2-12 Raiders, and a chance at a playoff spot.
But there is one thing they haven’t lost: their fans. I am more happy and excited about the Bills than ever before. Seeing their first winning season since I became a die-hard Bills fan is exciting. Considering the challenges the Bills faced as a team this year, this is an unbelievable feat. So here is my year in review.
The Saga Begins
Let’s commence with that tragic July 2nd when I got that Bills app update that Kiko Alonso hurt his knee. My first thought was just “no.” When I found out he tore his ACL, I was speechless. Could you have imagined how powerful the defensive line would have been with both Kiko and the Brandon Spikes?
Then came the disappointing preseason with three straight losses going into the regular season, and I expected another 6-10 season or worse. The next few weeks came as a nice surprise though- two wins with EJ! But the two losses afterwards led them to put KO in. He did well, but we lost Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller to injuries in the process.
The Saga Continues
After the bye week, we had two disappointing losses in games the Bills should have won. And then there came another obstacle they had to go through: Mother Nature. Buffalo got about 8 feet of snow and I got a ScoreCenter update asking me to call a number to come shovel Ralph Wilson Stadium (aka THE best invitation ever). Then the Bills beat the Jets 38-3 as if there had never been a snowstorm in the first place.
CJ returned against Oakland and, with the way Sammy had been playing all season, I was ready for the playoff push to keep going. After that game there was an afternoon of tears. The Bills lost to the Raiders 26-24. They almost made a comeback, but the Oakland defense was just too good that Sunday. Playoff chances were gone, but my hope was definitely not.
The main things that kept me devoted to the 2014 season were Sammy Watkins, Dan Carpenter, and the defensive line. The All-Pro duo and the defensive line were stellar this year and Dan Carpenter got a career high 34 field goals and set the Buffalo Bills record. Sammy was just Sammy and set some rookie records all across the board.
I have a lot to be upset about because the Bills didn’t make it into the playoffs, but I am also so happy with this Bills season. The Bills will keep improving even without Doug Marrone and KO because Doug Marrone was not the defensive coordinator and KO could have been better.
I see great things in store for 2015 and we shall see if Rex Ryan does become the new head coach. Boy, will I have a lot of things to say about that.
By Antonio Papa
How unlikely was the twenty round shootout between the Capitals and the Panthers?
Last Tuesday, the Florida Panthers defeated the Washington Capitals in the longest NHL shootout ever. It was a grueling, twenty-round battle that dwarfed the previous record. The previous record for longest shootout, which only lasted fifteen rounds, took place in 2005 between the New York Rangers and the Capitals.
Just how incredible was the shootout marathon between Washington and Florida?
Shootouts themselves aren’t terribly rare; there have been 1409 since the league instituted them for the 2005-06 season. Between the 2005-06 and 2013-14 seasons 13.3% of games have been decided by shootouts. The majority of those shootouts have been resolved in the first three rounds. If the score is tied after the first three rounds then more rounds are added until one team scores and the other misses.
Here is a table that counts the number of shootouts that reached up to fifteen rounds (the previous record). The number of shootouts drops rapidly as the number of rounds increases, and barely any last more than eight rounds. Again, this data includes all games between the 2005-06 and 2013-14 (previous) season and thus does not include this season’s data.
*Note: A shootout can end after two rounds if one team leads by 2-0 at the end of the second round (leaving no room for a comeback and resulting in an automatic shootout win).
This relationship of the number of shootouts that reach a particular round can be better described graphically. The following graph only shows shootouts that went to at least the fourth round, because the shootout rules change to sudden death after the third round. The y-axis is on a logarithmic scale.
A function of natural log fits the plot quite well. Based on the trend line, the probability that any particular game will end in a shootout lasting twenty or more rounds is 0.00112%. If we extend this relationship, we predict that, with 1230 games in a season, we can expect a shootout like the one on between Florida and Washington to take place about once every seventy-two seasons.
So, how rare was Tuesday’s shootout marathon?
Once in a lifetime.
by: Dana Fesjian
And we are back. After six weeks of emotional ups and downs, the Bills have reached their first eight-win season in ten years, thanks to a Week 15 upset over the Packers. How long ago was that last eight-win season? Well, for starters, Sammy Watkins was 11 years old in 2004. Fred Jackson was earning $200 a week playing indoor football for the Sioux City (Iowa) Bandits. Usher and Outkast topped the Billboard Hot 100.
How did the Bills get here? That would be thanks to Dan Carpenter and the Bills defense. The Bills special teams and defense accounted for all 21 points last week, enough to overcome the hottest team in football. The Packers were working on a five-game winning streak. No other team in the league had even a four-game streak. Of course, KO’s ability to not mess up has helped too. Though KO has only thrown five TD passes over the last six games (since my last article), he has kept the Bills close in every game.
When I think of the Buffalo Bills, I think “field goals.” Unlike the quarterback position, the Bills never went wrong with the choices they made at kicker. It was bittersweet when they let Rian Lindell go two summers ago – after 10 seasons with the Bills – in favor of their sixth round draft pick Dustin Hopkins, who had set the all-time NCAA scoring record for kickers with 466 points at FSU. But a groin injury ended Hopkins’s rookie season before it even began.
In comes the “replacement” Dan Carpenter…Last year, Carpenter made 33 field goals, tied for the most in Bills history. His 91.7% accuracy was second only to Rian Lindell in 2006. This season, Carpenter leads the NFL with 32 field goals and is T-second in the league with 5 field goals of 50+ yards. Last week, he went 4/4 and led the charge against the Packers.
The Bills are also lucky to have such a strong defense. Over the past two weeks, they have held Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning to a combined zero touchdowns and four interceptions. They lead the NFL with 49 sacks and are second in the league with 30 turnovers. Go Bills. And they are ranked in the top 10 in just about every other defensive category as well.
In the midst of all of these defensive feats, Sammy‘s 850 receiving yards surpassed the previous Bills rookie mark held by Lee Evans. He’s looking to join only 12 other rookies since the merger to reach the 1,000-yard plateau. All in all, these things were good for the Bills and for my fantasy teams so thanks boys. I just hope that the momentum from this game can carry on into next week’s game against the Raiders. And that all of the teams that need to lose in order for the Bills to get into the playoffs are playing defenses just as good as theirs.
By Jeffrey Gleason
Nine weeks into the NFL season, no teams remain unbeaten. This could’ve actually been said after eight weeks, after seven weeks, and after six weeks as well. Week 5 was the last time an unbeaten team remained, when both the Cardinals and Bengals were sitting at 3-0.
However, after these same nine weeks, five teams remain unbeaten at home. The Patriots, Broncos, Eagles, Packers, and Cardinals have yet to lose on their own turf.
Home field advantage is a phenomenon that gets a lot of traction in sports. Experts often use it to justify their predictions and betting lines usually reflect the perceived advantage of the home side. However, people often generalize home field advantage with a “one size fits all” approach, acknowledging its presence, but assuming it displays a constant impact across different situations.
With five unbeaten NFL home teams and the recent impetus of a road team finally winning Game 7 of the World Series (the Giants topped the Royals on October 29th to capture their third championship in five years), I was interested in how home field advantage was quantitatively different in different situations. How does it vary across sports? Do both good teams and bad teams experience the same advantage? Is it magnified in the postseason? What about differences in earlier eras? These are the questions I set out to resolve.
By: Patrick Harrel
Tune in to any NBA team’s local broadcast, and you will be sure to hear a litany of clichés from the commentators. Most are quick to praise older players, noting on occasion that “veteran teams just know how to win games.” The San Antonio Spurs, for example, are lauded for their ability to defy expectations, winning another NBA title last year despite Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili closing in on 40 and Tony Parker getting well into his 30’s. Like most musings from broadcasters, these assertions are driven by little more than perception—completely unfounded points made to maintain conversation in a long season.
But could there be some merit to these thoughts? There is no doubt that NBA teams are looking for any edge they can get, and do veteran players give them an advantage? Do older teams in the NBA truly “find ways to win games” like so many claim? That’s what we aimed to find out in this research.
To look at this issue, we consider an expected wins model first constructed by Bill James for baseball and later adapted by Daryl Morey for use in basketball. James dubbed his formula for expected wins the “Pythagorean expectation” because of its similarity to the Pythagorean theorem, and it relies on the well-established principle that point differential is a better estimator of team performance than raw Win-Loss data. James’ formula for the Pythagorean expectation of winning percentage is as follows:
The adapted NBA formula which we have used is the following:
Using this formula, we built a database with each team season for the last 20 years (excluding lockout years, which had odd statistical trends) with their Pythagorean expectation of wins. Using that figure, we compared the actual wins for every team to their expectation, and generated a residual figure for each individual team season. A positive residual means that a team won more games than their point differential would forecast, and a negative residual means the opposite.
The other major metric used in this section of the research is minutes-weighted age. Averaging all the ages of players on the roster does not give an accurate representation of a team’s effective age as it fails to distinguish the impact of a player like Tim Duncan, who played over 2000 minutes for the Spurs in 2013-14 at the age of 37, versus Steve Nash, who played all of 313 minutes in that same season. However, by weighting the average by the amount of minutes a player has played, we get a much stronger metric for the effective age of an NBA team. We then normalized the weighted age values to zero using the league average for each season to account for changing ages in any given year.
With these two metrics in mind, we compared the residual values of expected versus actual wins to a team’s age vs. the league average, using a linear regression, and came up with the following results:
With the regression model above, we found that there was no significant relationship between a team’s minutes weighted age and their residual wins. Because the residual wins value was centered on 0, there is no intercept term, and the only thing that remains in the regression is the slope value times the explanatory variable, age. That slope value was essentially zero, with no statistical significance whatsoever.
If you are interested, the data was as follows:
As you can see, the data yielded no statistically significant results with respect to a relationship between older teams outperforming or underperforming their expected wins. In fact, looking at publicly available data for the last 20 years, there were no apparent trends for teams outperforming their expected wins. Faster paced teams, teams that shot a lot of threes, won a lot of games, or got to the free throw line a lot all did not see a statistically significant improvement in outpacing their Pythagorean expectation.
Perhaps this is not a groundbreaking result, but it highlights the effectiveness of Pythagorean expectation that not only is it an unbiased estimator of a team’s winning percentage regardless of age, it is unbiased regardless of virtually any factor you can check. Teams that scored a lot, very little, or in the middle all tended to match their Pythagorean expectation on average. This unbiased nature of the Pythagorean estimator has its roots in the derivation of it. Research has shown point differential to be a better indicator of a team’s performance than winning percentage, and this further investigation supports that research.
This is just one way of evaluating whether veteran teams get an edge, but at least in this sector of our research, it is clear that older teams do not have any advantage. Older teams might play slower, shoot more threes, or dunk less, but they will match their Pythagorean expectation over time.
By Dana Fesjian
Four week update on the Kyle Orton experiment! When Doug Marrone replaced EJ Manuel at quarterback, I wasn’t sure what to expect from the offense. I went into these past four games with a little bit of hope but mostly just doubt. This ambivalence was best captured by Orton’s career record of an even 35-35. So it seemed to me that the best-case scenario was mediocrity and the worst case was, well…
His first game against the Lions was full of emotions. I was in lab (yes, lab on a Sunday afternoon during football season) and I was getting updates from ScoreCenter that the Bills were down 14-3 at halftime. Why didn’t they just leave EJ in? But after KO (does anyone call him this? If not I’m starting it) led the Bills to his 8th career game winning drive and Dan Carpenter won it with a 58-yard field goal, I was ecstatic and praising Doug Marrone.
However, I didn’t want to speak too soon and automatically go into an “I love KO” rant without seeing how well the 31-year old played for a few more games because the long term is what matters for the Bills. And I was right to not immediately praise KO because the next week they had a disappointing sixth-straight loss to the Patriots.
The last two games against the Vikings and the Jets were fantastic. Unfortunately we lost our two best running backs, CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, in the first half of the game versus the Vikings. I was crushed when I found out both would miss significant time. But not all was bad. After KO’s 2nd game winning drive of the season against the Vikings, only Tony Romo and Nick Foles had more game winning drives on the season, and that’s considering KO didn’t even play until Week 5.
With the thin running game, I assumed that this meant Sammy was going to get many more opportunities to fill the void. And that’s basically what happened on Sunday’s blowout game versus the Jets, which I was lucky enough to attend! That was such a great game. Even without CJ and Fred, the Bills scored 43 points thanks to an all around effort from the stonewall defense forcing 6 turnovers and from KO’s chemistry with Sammy.
In comparing KO to EJ, we see that in four games EJ has 838 yards and KO has 1,128 yards. KO also has an NFL-best 73.0% Comp Pct. in 3rd down passing, whereas EJ has the NFL’s 2nd-worst (50.0%). If the Bills keep KO at quarterback and don’t decide to bring EJ back, KO can approach his career-best 2009 season stats…in 4 fewer games.
All I can say is it’s amazing what happens when you have a quarterback you can count on. Let’s see how KO continues.